Global markets rebounded handsomely today after some great uncertainties in relation to which direction the markets should move, as shown by the intra-day volatility of most Asian markets today.
Fundamental question is, is this a Buying Opportunity of the Life-time Or Just Sucker's Rally?
To recap, a number of financial measures or incentives were handed out by several countries yesterday. For instance:
- UK's £35 billion retail bank rescue funds for HBOS, Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB and Barclays;
- A separate financial package included a £50 billion cash injection, guaranteeing interbank lending by £250 billion to help unfreeze wholesale markets, and extending a Bank of England scheme that swaps banks’ risky assets for government debt to provide £200 billion of cash to the system
- European central banks to temporarily guarantee inter-bank lending;
- Australia to fully guarantee all bank deposits
- Plans by U.S. Government to own stakes in U.S Banks;
According to Aaron Task, one should be cautioned the fact that there is still lack of a coordinated global policy response, and the U.S. continuing to lag other nations in taking the most dramatic steps like insuring all bank deposits and directly injecting capital into banks. Secondly, unemployment in U.S may hit 8.5% before the cycle turns. Last but not least, valuations tend to overshoot on the downside and bear markets historically don't end until P/E ratios hit single digits.
Here is a video report of the above discussion.
